Is Optimism a Way of Creating the Future?

Optimism

We Are Responsible for the Future

The possibilities that lie in the future are infinite. When I say ‘It is our duty to remain optimists,’ this includes not only the openness of the future, but also that which all of us contribute to it by everything we do.

We are responsible for what the future holds in store. It is our duty, not to prophesy evil, but, rather, to fight for a better world..

Karl Popper, The Myth of the Framework: In Defense of Science and Rationality

The Principle of Optimism

All evils are caused by insufficient knowledge.

Optimism is a way of explaining failure, not prophesying success. It says that there is no fundamental barrier, no law of nature or supernatural decree, preventing progress.

Whenever we try to improve things and fail, it is not because the spiteful (or benevolent) gods are thwarting us or punishing us for trying, or because we have reached a limit on the capacity of reason to make improvements, or because it is best that we fail, but always because we did not know enough, in time.

In addition, optimism is a stance towards the future, because nearly all failures, and nearly all successes, are yet to come.

The Beginning of Infinity
The Beginning of Infinity: Explanations That Transform the World

David Deutsch

Background on David Deutsch

How Did Ancient People Use Calendars?

Oldest Calendars

The oldest ‘calendars‘ are vast archaeological sites that aligned posts or megaliths (giant stones) with the rising of the Sun or Moon on significant dates, such as the summer or winter solsticeThe earliest structures built as calendars seem to be designed to help calculate the solar and lunar months. Priest-astronomers used these. 

Prehistoric astronomers left no user manuals for their monuments – their uses had to be rediscovered by archaeoastronomersarchaeologists with knowledge of astronomy. 

Warren Field, Scotland, found in 2004, is the earliest site found so far. It tracks events some 10,000 years ago.

Development of Accurate Calendars

Calendar development was often driven by the need to fix religious festivals and observance, an impulse that continued with the formation of new religions such as Christianity and Islam. Both put astronomy to use in this way.

Arab astronomers and engineers were zealous in their pursuit of improved methods for keeping time so that daily prayers could be received by the devout at the right time.

Time-keeping on a larger scale was essential in scheduling religious festivals.

Lunar Calendars 

Time is naturally divided astronomically by the Earth’s orbit around the Sun (a year), the Earth’s rotation (a day) and the phases of the Moon. A lunar month (a full cycle from one new or full moon to the next is approximately 29 1/2 days. A year is 365 1/4 days.

Inconveniently, a year is 12.37 lunar months long. For early societies, a lunar month was a useful and countable period of time, one that could be easily observed and checked just by looking up at the night sky.

But if you use 12  lunar months as the basis of your year, the calendar will drift out of sync quite quickly. It will be a month out after only 3 years, and 6 months out after 18 years. To avoid this, an extra (intercalary) month has to be added every few years.

Egyptian Calendars

The ancient Egyptians began their year with the rising of Sirius (which they called Sopdet) above the horizon before sun rise.

  • System dates to c. 3000 BC.
  • Divided year into 365 days.
  • Used two different calendars.
  • Sirius, a stable star, and the brightest star in the night sky, was the basis for the Egyptian calendar.
  • Ptolemaic rulers depended on calendars.

Other cultures developed independent calendars, notably China and Mesoamerican (Central American) civilizations.

Chinese Yin-Yang Li Traditional Calendar

Origins of the Chinese calendar can be traced back to 14th century BC, though legend says it was invented in 2637 BC.

  • Literally ‘heaven-Earth’ calendar.
  • Used alongside imported calendars such as the Hindu calendar.
  • Used until 1912, when China officially adopted the Western Gregorian calendar.

How the World Works: Astronomy: From Plotting the Stars to Pulsars and Black Holes
How the World Works: Astronomy: From Plotting the Stars to Pulsars and Black Holes 

Anne Rooney

Background on Anne Rooney

Why is Easter Celebrated on Different Calendar Dates From Year To Year?

Easter

Standardization of Easter Celebration Date

The Catholic Church fixes the date of Easter, its celebration to mark the resurrection of Christ, using a method set out in AD 325 by the Council of Nicaea. In the first centuries AD, Easter was celebrated on different days by different groups of Christians, the Council of Nicaea sought to standardize it.

Role of Full Moon

Easter is now celebrated on the first Sunday after the full moon occurring on or after the spring equinox. Early Christians couldn’t simply wait to find out when the full moon would fall, then quickly celebrate Easter. They had to fit in Lent – 40 days of fasting – immediately beforehand, so had to know several weeks in advance when that full moon would fall, a task that could only be achieved by keeping astronomical records and projecting into the future.

Easter Dates 

How the World Works: Astronomy: From Plotting the Stars to Pulsars and Black Holes
How the World Works: Astronomy: From Plotting the Stars to Pulsars and Black Holes
Anne Rooney

Background on Anne Rooney

Pluto – Is it a Planet?

Pluto

A Planet Lurking in the Darkness?

In the mid-1800s, astronomers began wondering if there was something out there besides Neptune – perhaps another planet – that accounted for the discrepancy in Uranus’ orbit. Astronomers were keenly interested in discovering what lurked in the darkness. And they began coming up with names for the unknown planet, including ‘Hyperion’, ‘Planet X’, and  ‘Planet O’.

Teams of astronomers spent years searching for the unknown plant. Finally, in 1930, Planet X was found by Clyde Tombaugh, who was working for the Lowell Observatory at the time. Tombaugh’s story is unusual. He was an itinerant hobbyist – he had no background in astronomy, was self-educated, and built his own telescopes.

Clyde Tombaugh

Clyde Tombaugh with His Homemade Telescope (1928)

In 1928, Clyde Tombaugh built a telescope (the one pictured above) from the crankshaft of a 1910 Buick and parts from a cream separator. He also ground his own mirrors for the reflector. He used this telescope to observe Jupiter and Mars, making drawings of what he saw. He sent his drawings to the Lowell Observatory hoping to get some professional feedback. Instead, he got a job.

Clyde Tombaugh died in 1997. He later had a rather special reward for his work. In 2006, his ashes were carried to Pluto by the NASA New Horizons mission, a space probe sent to study the planet he had discovered.


From Planet X to Pluto

Having finally found Planet X, the next question was, “What should this new-found planet be called?” A worldwide competition to name ‘Planet X’ was held in 1930, and was won by Venetia Burney, an 11-year-old English girl, who proposed the name Pluto after the Greek god of the underworld, who was able to make himself invisible. Burney was rewarded with £5 (5 pounds, UK currency).

Venetia Burney (1918-2009) was an English woman. As the winner of the planet-naming competition, Clyde Tombaugh credited Burney with first suggesting the name Pluto for the planet he discovered in 1930. At the time, she was 11 years old and lived in Oxford, England. As an adult she worked as an accountant and a teacher.

Venetia Burney -age 11-1929
Venetia Burney, age 11


Pluto Becomes a Dwarf Planet

Pluto’s reign as a planet was relatively short-lived.  In 2006, the International Astronomical Union (IAU) agreed on a formal definition for a ‘planet’ for the first time, and in the process, Pluto lost its planet status.

The IAU decreed three key requirements which must be met in order for a celestial body to be designated as a planet – Pluto passed the first two criteria, but failed on the third, that of dominating the area around its orbit, since Pluto’s orbit is cluttered with asteroids and other debris. In addition, one of Pluto’s moons, Charon, is about 1/2 the size of Pluto, which violates another standard expected of a planet.

So, having lost its status as a full-fledged planet, Pluto has become a dwarf planet, designated 134340 Pluto – now it’s just one of many large objects in the Kuiper belt. Other dwarf (minor) planets include Ceres in the asteroid belt and Eris, which lies beyond Pluto’s orbit.
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How the World Works: Astronomy: From Plotting the Stars to Pulsars and Black Holes
How the World Works: Astronomy: From Plotting the Stars to Pulsars and Black Holes
Anne Rooney

 

 


Ann Rooney
Anne Rooney

. Anne Rooney website
. Royal Literary Fund (RLF)
. Scholastic Magazine

Before turning to full-time writing, Anne completed a PhD at Trinity College, Cambridge, and taught medieval English and French literature at the universities of Cambridge and York. She teaches creative writing as part of the Pembroke-King’s summer program in Cambridge. She is an RLF (Royal Literary Fund) Fellow at Newnham College, Cambridge. She lives in Cambridge and has two daughters.

Anne Rooney has written extensively on modern science, technology and contemporary issues for young people. She has worked in the computer industry for about 20 years, as well as advising educational bodies on various technological matters.

Anne Rooney writes books on science, technology, engineering and the history of science for children and adults. She has published around 200 books on a variety of subjects. Before writing books full-time, she worked in the computer industry and wrote and edited educational materials, often on aspects of science and computer technology.

Books written by Anne Rooney include:

What’s a Typical Place in the Universe Like?

Looking Into Deep Space

Take an Imaginary Journey Into Deep Space 

Imagine traveling a few hundred miles up, into the sky, from the Earth’s surface. At this point, you’d be in the slightly more typical environment of space. But, you are still being heated and illuminated by the sun, and half your view is still taken up by the Earth itself. A typical location in space has none of those features.

So, travel a few trillion miles (1 light year = 5.879 x 1012 miles = 1 trillion miles) further in the same direction. You are now so far away that the sun looks like other stars. You are at a much colder, darker and emptier place. But, it is not yet typical – you are still inside the Milky Way galaxy, and most of the places in the universe are not in any galaxy.

Continue traveling until you are clear outside the galaxy – say, a 100,000 light years from Earth. At this distance you could not glimpse the Earth even if you had the most powerful telescope that humans have built. But, the  Milky Way still fills much of your sky.

To get to a typical place in the universe, you have to imagine yourself at least a 100,000 times further out, deep into intergalactic space – finally you would have arrived in a typical location.


A Typical Place in the Universe is Dark, Cold, and Empty

Deep Space

The sky would be pitch blackThe nearest star would be so far away that if it were to explode into a supernova, and you were looking directly at it when its light reached you, you would not even see a glimmer. That is how big and dark the universe is.

It’s cold. The temperature is 2.7 kelvin, which means 2.7 degrees above the coldest possible temperature, absolute zero, or about 270 degrees Celcius (518 degrees Fahrenheit) colder than the freezing point of water. That’s cold enough to freeze every known substance except helium, which is believed to remain liquid right down to absolute zero, unless highly pressurized.

It’s empty. The density of atoms out there is below 1 per cubic meter. That’s a million times sparser than atoms in the space between stars, and those atoms themselves are sparser than in the best vacuum that human technology has yet achieved.

Almost all the atoms in intergalactic space are hydrogen or helium, so there is no chemistry. No life could have evolved there, nor any intelligence. Nothing changes there. Nothing happens.

That’s the unimaginably desolate environment which is typical of the universe – it’s a measure of how untypical the Earth and its chemical soup are, in a straightforward physical sense.

The Beginning of Infinity
The Beginning of Infinity: Explanations That Transform the World

David Deutsch

 

 


David Deutsch
David Deutsch

Born 1953

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. David Deutsch website
. Wikipedia
The Infinite Optimism of Physicist David Deutsch (Scientific American interview)

David Deutsch, FSR (Fellow of the Royal Society) is an Israeli-born British physicist at the University of Oxford. He is a Visiting Professor in the Department of Atomic and Laser Physics at the Centre for Quantum Computation (CQC) in the Clarendon Laboratory of the University of Oxford.

Deutsch pioneered the field of quantum computation by formulating a description for a quantum Turing machine, as well as specifying an algorithm designed to run on a quantum computer. He is a proponent of the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics.

Books David Deutsch has written:


David Deutsch Interview – Which Laws of Nature Are Fundamental?